- Rs 5,821Cr sell off by the FII over the 16-21 jan period, which constitute only 0.08% of the total market cap of the exchangehas brought down a Rs 75 lakhs crore market by 30% . It shows how much we are dependent on FII and how weak our retail investor or domestic investment is?
HBJ Capital : Small fraction of selling from FII (2000Cr or 4000Cr a day) is bring down the Sensex by 8-10% down, just note down that P-Note has invested close to $30 billion and they have 18 months to exit, if the outlook of market doesn't seems good then they will exit soon bringing Sensex down to 10k level and nifty to 3000 points.
- FM assured 9% growth,RBI also expect 8.5% growth.
HBJ Capital: Don't get misleaded by what these guys says, yes India will grow with these rates but can they give an assurence that Indian stock market will bounce back and regain their past glory. Indian market will be in trouble for the short term, but it can prolong if FII doesn't change their mood or else if they see economice growth slowing down.
- The sensex is trading 15.7 times FY09 PE, higher than its 10 years average of around 13.6 times.
HBJ Capital: Don't think that Market is at the bottom, we expect it to fall further by another 5% in order to be in line with FY09 PE of 13.6. So wait and watch, game is not over, you will get better price for each stocks.
- Sensex earning growth for FY09/10 is expected to be at 18-19%. due to global economy weakness it might come down to 12-15%, hence Sensex will do re-rating.
HBJ Capital: Due to US economy slowdown, India's growth rate will come down from 19% to 15% (approx) and due to slowing growth rate Indian markets will get re-rated to lower level.
- HBJ Capital Team.