Sunday, September 14, 2008

Lehman talks continue on sunday morning US time - Deal should get closed with Lehman before Asian Markets open on Monday for trading.

It is once again the same weekend, what we had when Bear Stearn was about to collapse, FED along with JP Morgan saved Bear Stearn and bailed out in order to save massive selling of its bad derivatives which were in trillions and trillions dollars!!!!

[In Apr'08 : HBJ Capital has predicted that Lehman will be next after Bear Stearn for bankruptcy]

Again, today being sunday night for us in India and in US, FED along with many financial companies/banks/institutions are meeting to decide the fate of Lehman which has already invited firms for its bankruptcy filing, so deal like who will buy good or bad asset of Lehman must be completed before Asian Market opens on Monday.

But one important thing to note here is....most of the asian markets are closed on Monday, though we are Open to face the heat :-(
MONDAY, SEPT 15
CHINA - Mid-Autumn Festival - Market Holiday
HONG KONG - The day following Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival - Market Holiday
JAPAN - Respect for the Aged Day - Market Holiday
SOUTH KOREA - Chuseok, Korean Thanksgiving Day - Market Holiday


Lehman's investment in Indian Equity Market is relatively low, so equity selloff due to Lehman's bankruptcy will not impact but due to sentiments impact will be felt.

Latest News Update:-
  • Barclays emerges as Lehman suitor - Barclays PLC reportedly has emerged as a leading contender in the bidding for Lehman Brothers, though a sale to the U.K. investment bank or to Bank of America could hinge on government financial support.
  • Talks are expected to resume Sunday morning at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Lehman's real-estate and other troubled assets, valued at about $85 billion, would be collected into a so-called bad bank to prevent troubled assets from flooding the market and damaging the assets held by other banks and insurers.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Treasury officials and banking executives have been meeting since Friday in hopes of engineering a plan for a private-sector rescue of Lehman before Asian markets open Monday for trading.
  • If the good assets are sold to Barclays or Bank of America, the fate of the "bad bank" would still have to be sorted out. Other Wall Street firms could be asked to inject some capital into the "bad bank" so a flood of bad assets doesn't deluge the market, damaging the value of similar assets held by healthier banks and insurers.
  • The WSJ also reports that the good bank / bad bank structure is losing support, because Wall Street firms do not want to support the bad bank and help their rival - either BofA or Barclays - acquire Lehman.
  • Lehman has hired law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP to prepare a potential bankruptcy filing, according to a person familiar with the situation. The New York-based Weil has a leading bankruptcy practice and advised Drexel Burnham Lambert on its 1990 bankruptcy filing.
  • A bankruptcy filing on or before Monday would bring an enormous amount of selling pressure to the equity markets.

-HBJ Capital Team

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