Consider What Has Happened in Past Bear Markets: Avg duration 20 months & downside 34%

How much down stocks can go in bear market as per history & how long it will take to hit the bottom?

• Average Duration = 20 months; Down = 34% ---> As per this by summer of 2009 this bear market will end and market will remain at current level.

This latest bear market officially began on July 9, when the S&P 500 index closed 20.5% lower than its high made on October 9, 2007.

1. The average bear market in the S&P 500 has seen an average loss of 34.1% over 20 months. That would take us to 1031.49, approximately where the index sits today. It's worth noting that, technically speaking, the "500" does have a lot of support in the low 1000-range, too. However, the 20-month average would take us out to the summer of 2009.
2. The last bear market — which lasted from March 2000 to October 2002 — took the entire "500" down 49.1% over about 30 months. If we apply that loss to this cycle's current high point, we arrive at an S&P 500 bottom of 796.66 somewhere around March, 2010. Yikes
3. Worst case, historically speaking? The fiercest bear occurred back in 1937-1942, with the index losing 60% of its value over 62 months. Today, that would mean an S&P 500 of 626.1 in the beginning of 2013.

This table breaks out each historical bear market for you ...

As you can see by these numbers, there could be plenty more pain ahead. But I want to come back to the greed part ... the reason to buy when everyone else is fearful.

-HBJ Capital Team