Wednesday, October 8, 2008

If things are bad now, they were also pretty bad in 1987 and 1998 yet we survived.

Bull & Bear markets are just two faces of the same coin, if we enjoyed last 5 years of bull run, let's face one or two years of bear run too. The (financial) world around us is so full of despair these days, that we begin with bearish tone and end with same bearish tone. Money is vanishing round the world, more so in the US and Europe. But will ‘greed’ that created so much money in the first place ever vanish?

The global stock markets continue to be hammered by fears that more banks and insurance companies around the world are on their way to bankruptcy. Across the world governments are stepping in to guarantee the bank deposits held by individuals.

The Indian economy – with little connection to the mess in the global economy – is home to a stock market that has plummeted over -50% when measured in US Dollars. India has little economic connection with the mess in the global financial system. But India is guilty by association. Our markets are sliding in a free - fall.

The P-Note bridge we have built with the casino gamblers on Wall Street has made the Indian stock markets a lot less tempting for many of the large pension funds and pools of long term capital. The P-Note owners are an unknown entity. These unknown owners of unknown quantities of shares are selling unknown amounts of shares for unknown reasons. We continue to see known losses on the value of our ownership in the Indian stock markets.

The dollar, branded as one of the weakest currencies in the world at the start of the year has emerged as one of the strongest currencies this year. The Indian Rupee, which was expected by most people to be a strong currency, has slipped by -20% against the US currency and lost -11% against the Euro.

We have seen financial panics before. We have seen wealth evaporate before.


  1. In 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed from 2,641 on October 2nd to 1,739 on October 15th. That was a decline of -52%.

  2. In 2 weeks. In 1998, the Dow Jones crashed from 9,338 on July 17th to 7,539 on August 31st. That was a decline of -24%. In 6 weeks.

  3. The current decline in the Dow is -49% from its peak of 14,093 established on October, 12, 2007. In 51 weeks.

If things are bad now, they were also pretty bad in 1987 and 1998 yet we survived as a species.

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