Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Let me tell you exactly how I see the current scenario, and what I see right now is opportunity - It is the time to buy!


Why you MUST look at Asian Stocks (especially Indian Stocks) to avail once in a life time opportunity? If you see China like a blue chip scrip then India is a mid/small cap stock "10in3" - A 10 bagger in 3 years (Expect Sensex @ 30,000 by 2011-12)
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Why they are attractive today:-
#1. The valuations are cheap.
  • The average P/E of Asian markets, as measured by the Dow Jones Asian Titans Index, is a bargain-basement 8.6 times earnings, the lowest since at least 1995.
  • The Nikkei is at 10 times earnings, only 8.8 for Hong Kong, India at nine times, Korea at 8.2, and even China is only at nine times earnings!
  • By any historical standard, those are extremely inexpensive multiples and usually the type of valuation metric that gets applied to economies that have fallen into a recession.

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#2. Asia may be slowing but isn’t in a recession.

  • The Chinese economy, which is the main economic engine for all of Asia, grew by 10.1% in the first six months of 2008. That puts it on track for a six double-digit annual growth rate in a row. India is growing at 7-8% even when US is showing -ve growth rate.

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#3. The Indians/Chinese have already taken aggressive steps to stimulate their economy.

  • As I mentioned above, after 18 straight rates hikes, the Chinese central bank reduced their key interest rate. They also lowered bank reserve requirements in September and again this week. India is close to reducing interest rate but RBI has done CRR rate cut to provide liquidity.
  • If you believe that China and its Asian neighbors can still expand their economies in spite of our credit crisis and falling estate values, then you have to believe that buying into rapidly growing economies at eight times earnings after a 60% haircut is a fantastic bargain.

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I absolutely believe that Asia will continue to expand, prosper, and grow. And I absolutely believe that this is the time to be a buyer instead of a seller of Asia’s best companies. Sure, the pace of growth is going to be a little bit slower, but I am 100% confident that Asia has many years of great growth ahead of it.

-HBJ Team

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