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Sunday, November 30, 2008

Black Friday (a day after Thanksgiving) sales up 3% from last year : Good enough to juice the markets.

The most awaited data as on today are coming out which is the sales figure for Thanksgiving day.....Strong discounts brought U.S. consumers to the stores on "Black Friday" -- the traditional first day of the holiday shopping season -- with estimated sales rising 3% from last year. This indeed a good news for wall street.

Preliminary sales for Black Friday totaled $10.6 billion. This year's rise in sales, while lower than the 8% increase seen for the day last year, comes despite plummeting consumer sentiment data and other economic turmoil. Retailers should be cautiously optimistic as deep discounts drove consumers en masse to various retail locations to spend, despite myriad economic pressures seen over the last two months.

Black Friday refers to the day after Thanksgiving, so called because many retailers begin to turn a profit on that day, moving from "red ink" to "black ink." Sales for the day are seen as a key harbinger for the overall holiday season.
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Just wait for the revision...these reports are just like GDP and unemployment always good enough to juice the markets then later revised down.
  • Sales up as discounts are up. Reminds us of existing home sales numbers...in many parts of the country the sales were up but prices were way down.
  • Amazing--you lower the price and people will buy it? Only products that were deeply discounted were selling. There go your margins. And, like the car manufacturers, this erodes future sales. How many laptops purchased at $0 or negative margin were sold on Black Friday that now won't be sold next year or the year after at a profit?
  • They'll have made sales look better but there was no margin. You can only put off the pain for so long and then it's curtains for you.

- JK, Associate, HBJ Capital

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